AI-Driven Prediction of Atmospheric New Particle Formation under Terpene Emissions and Anthropogenic Influences in High-Altitude Environments
Keywords:
artificial intelligence; atmospheric new particle formation; terpene emissions; anthropogenic influences; high-altitude environments; mountain observatories; socio-technical systems; environmental governanceAbstract
Atmospheric new particle formation is a critical yet highly uncertain process in the Earth system because it links trace-gas chemistry, aerosol microphysics, cloud condensation nuclei, and climate forcing. In high-altitude environments, this uncertainty is amplified by steep gradients in temperature, solar radiation, boundary-layer dynamics, and biogenic emissions, especially terpenes from mountain vegetation. Anthropogenic emissions further complicate prediction by introducing sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, ammonia, volatile organic compounds, and black carbon into regimes that may otherwise be dominated by natural precursors. This paper examines the system-level requirements for artificial intelligence driven prediction of new particle formation under combined terpene and anthropogenic influences in high-altitude settings. Rather than treating machine learning as a standalone forecasting tool, the analysis frames it as part of a socio-technical infrastructure that includes sensor networks, data curation, model governance, computational deployment, and policy feedback. The discussion identifies architecture trade-offs among physics-informed models, data-driven sequence learners, hybrid assimilation systems, and ensemble uncertainty quantification. It also considers robustness under sparse observations, distribution shift across seasons, fairness in the allocation of monitoring resources, and sustainability of long-term mountain observatories. The central argument is that accurate prediction depends less on isolated algorithmic novelty than on integrated design choices that couple atmospheric science, engineering reliability, institutional coordination, and environmental governance. The paper concludes that AI-driven new particle formation prediction should be evaluated not only by forecast skill but also by its capacity to support equitable, adaptive, and scientifically defensible decision-making in vulnerable high-altitude regions.
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